© 2012
Daily
Tennis News Wire -
Men's Look Forward: Roland Garros
At least the draw gods were fair. David Ferrer, who
probably ought to be the #4 seed at a clay slam, is in
the same quarter as Andy Murray, who has the actual #4
seed.
On the other hand, Roger Federer is in Novak Djokovic's
half, which will make it that much harder for us to
figure out who "should" be #2. That of course puts
Murray in Nadal's half. Our potential quarterfinals are
Djokovic versus #5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who is of course
the top French player but whose game is best suited for
faster surfaces). Federer's quarterfinal opponent would
be his frequent nemesis, #7 Tomas Berdych. Murray of
course would face Ferrer; Nadal's quarterfinal opponent
would be #8 Janko Tipsarevic.
To get to the quarterfinal, Djokovic's route passes
through Potito Starace in the first round (still a
threat on clay, if nowhere else), #30 Jurgen Melzer in
the third, and #14 Fernando Verdasco or #22 Andreas
Seppi in the fourth. Nikolay Davydenko is also in that
part of the draw -- he opens against Seppi -- but
Davydenko really doesn't seem a threat right now.
Tsonga's first seeded opponent would be #30 Viktor
Troicki (who, however, opens against Thomaz Bellucci).
Then would come #11 Gilles Simon or #18 Stanislas
Wawrinka -- both of whom like clay a lot better than
Tsonga; if the Frenchman makes it that far, an upset
seems not unlikely.
Federer could face David Nalbandian in the second round,
but as a partial offset, he faces #26 Andy Roddick in
the third, and Roddick is out of form and dislikes clay
anyway. In the fourth, Federer would face #15 Feliciano
Lopez (another guy who isn't too fond of clay) or #23
Radek Stepanek (tired after Dusseldorf).
The first seed Berdych would face would be #31 Kevin
Anderson, who probably isn't a threat on clay -- but
then comes #9 Juan Martin del Potro or #21 Marin Cilic.
That part looks tough. It's tough for Del Potro and
Cilic, too; the former opens against Albert Montanes;
the latter faces Juan Carlos Ferrero in the second
round.
The same fate that put David Ferrer in Andy Murray's
quarter also stuck the Spaniard with facing Albert Ramos
in the second round, so the draw really was a mixed bag
for him. In the third, he would face #27 Mikhail
Youzhny. Potential fourth round opponents are #10 John
Isner (probably not a threat to Ferrer on this surface)
and #20 Marcel Granollers (who might be).
Andy Murray is drawn to face Jarkko Nieminen in the
second round, #25 Bernard Tomic in the third, then #16
Alexandr Dolgopolov or #17 Richard Gasquet. A tough draw
for a guy with a back problem and a clay problem both!
Julien Benneteau wasn't expected to play, but has has
taken the #29 seed and will try. He would be the first
seed to face Tipsarevic. The fourth round is likely to
be tougher for Tipsarevic; the seeds are #12 Nicolas
Almagro and #24 Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Juan Ignacio
Chela is also in that part of the draw.
Defending champion Nadal's first three rounds are easy:
#32 Florian Mayer would be the first seed he would face.
It gets trickier in the fourth, when he might face #13
Juan Monaco or #19 Milos Raonic.
The Rankings
This, frankly, is going to be no fun at all.
The problem with this year's French Open is that it is
being played a week later than last year. That means
that we have two sets of events coming off -- not just
Roland Garros 2011 but also Halle and Queen's 2011. The
latter two both being popular events. Philipp
Kohlschreiber won Halle, over Philipp Petzschner; Gael
Monfils and Tomas Berdych were semifinalists. The Queens
title went to Andy Murray, over finalist Jo-Wilfried
Tsonga; James Ward was a shock semifinalist (and has
never managed to back it up), with Andy Roddick being a
less surprising semifinalist.
As for the results in Paris, Rafael Nadal was of course
the winner. Roger Federer was the finalist, with Andy
Murray and Novak Djokovic the semifinalists. The
quarterfinalists were Juan Ignacio Chela, Fabio Fognini,
Gael Monfils, and Robin Soderling (who of course won't
be playing); making the fourth round were Alejandro
Falla, David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, Ivan Ljubicic
(obviously not returning), Albert Montanes, Gilles
Simon, Viktor Troicki, and Stanislas Wawrinka.
It won't matter at #1. With Nadal and Federer both
defending big points, Djokovic is safe on top. On the
other hand, it's a fairly close contest for #2, and with
Nadal having more to defend, he absolutely has to
outlast Federer to stay at #2. Andy Murray is so far
back as to be practically out of the picture; he is safe
at #4, but he has no real chance of climbing.
#5 Tsonga, #6 Ferrer, and #7 Berdych are close enough
together that it's likely the one who lasts longest will
be the new #5. Odds are that they will remain #5-#7 in
some order.
Janko Tipsarevic and Juan Martin del Potro look likely
to stay Top Ten, although their positions are not
entirely secure. But the last Top Ton spot is very much
up for grabs. John Isner, Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils,
Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco, and Fernando Verdasco are
the obvious candidates to get it.
Chela and Fognini, especially the latter, are likely to
lose their Top Fifty places. Robin Soderling can bid the
Top Hundred goodbye.


