Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.

This is the week we roll up our sleeves and finally get to start eliminating people.

Shanghai represents about a third of the points still available to players this year, so most lower-ranked players will officially be out of the Race after they lose here. (In practice, of course, they’re pretty well out of the Race anyway. But this will make it official.) For the few players who are around the cutoff for qualifying — David Ferrer, at the bottom of the list of players currently in line to qualify, or Richard Gasquet or Kevin Anderson, next below the cutoff — this is the chance to strengthen, or lose, their position. In terms of points, Shanghai is no bigger than Paris. But anyone who puts points in the bank now will obviously be in a better position later on.

The result, not surprisingly, is a rich field. In fact, it’s about as rich as it can possibly be. Everyone is here — the entire Top Twenty. That’s everyone who still possesses a real shot at London, and then some. The top guys missing are #21 Grigor Dimitrov and #23 Gael Monfils.

Since the big issue this week is the Race, let’s look at the rounds in which the top players are supposed to meet. In the final, it’s supposed to be #1 seed Novak Djokovic against #2 Roger Federer, the defending champion (although those points are already off, meaning that Federer is ranked #3 despite being seeded #2). That gives us a rather unbalanced draw, because #3 seed Andy Murray, now ranked #2, is in Djokovic’s half, while Federer has drawn #4 Stan Wawrinka as his semifinal opponent. In the quarterfinal, Djokovic has drawn #7 David Ferrer — another tough draw for Ferrer as he tries to cinch his London spot. Murray would face #5 Tomas Berdych, who crashed at Beijing but who has now had a week to rest. Wawrinka’s quarterfinal is supposed to be against #8 seed Rafael Nadal — call that the “No, I’m the fourth of the Big Four” match. Federer has drawn #6 Kei Nishikori, who didn’t look any too good at Tokyo this week.

In the Round of Sixteen, Djokovic has drawn #15 Feliciano Lopez, who wouldn’t be seeded if this week’s rankings were used. Ferrer is up against #11 Richard Gasquet, who lost much too early last week, blowing a Top Ten chance in the process. Murray has drawn #13 John Isner. Berdych is supposed to face #10 Gilles Simon, who was last year’s finalist but who lost too early last week. Nadal is up against #9 Milos Raonic, who seems finally to be coming around. Wawrinka is drawn against #14 Marin Cilic, who would have been seeded a tier higher under the new rankings. Nishikori faces our new Top Ten player, #12 Kevin Anderson, who however lost early last week. And Federer drew #16 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who was sick in Beijing, although that may have been that stuff the Chinese government pretends is breathable air.

Djokovic, who somehow doesn’t seem to have breathing problems here despite what used to happen to him in the U. S., will likely start against Tsonga’s partner in pollution-related illness, Martin Klizan. Lopez will probably play Dominic Thiem, who is the #2 unseeded player, in round two. Gasquet opens against Gilles Muller, who did so much damage in Tokyo, then perhaps Vasek Pospisil. Ferrer will start against either Bernard Tomic or Fernando Verdasco. Murray has it relatively easy, but even he will have to start against either Andreas Seppi or Steve Johnson. Isner opens against Adrian Mannarino, then either David Goffin, the top unseeded player, or Tokyo finalist Benoit Paire. Simon has a nice draw, but could face Leonardo Mayer in round two. Berdych will probably start against Jack Sock. Nadal will have to face either Ivo Karlovic, the new king of aces, or Jeremy Chardy. Raonic starts against Thomaz Bellucci, then either Roberto Bautista Agut or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Cilic has a relative laugher of a draw, but even he has to face Borna Coric in the second round. Wawrinka starts against either Pablo Cuevas (who beat Berdych and Karlovic last week) or Viktor Troicki. Nishikori will likely face Nick Kyrgios. Anderson opens against Tommy Haas (who got the only wildcard not given to a Chinese sacrificial victim), then probably Fabio Fognini. Tsonga opens against Tommy Robredo. Federer, whose draw here was very kind, will probably open against Sam Querrey.

The Rankings

This is yet another strange week, because Shanghai 2014 is already off the books. So what happens this week is that players will lose their lowest optional event and add whatever they earn at Shanghai. Of course, if a player has a lot to defend at one of the events last year at this time (Moscow, Stockholm, Vienna), that will be what comes off. So: The title at Moscow went to Marin Cilic, over Roberto Bautista Agut, with Ernests Gulbis and Mikhail Kukushkin semifinalists. Tomas Berdych won Stockholm, over Grigor Dimitrov, with Matthias Bachinger and Bernard Tomic semifinalists. Andy Murray won the trophy at Vienna, beating David Ferrer in the final, with Philipp Kohlschreiber and Viktor Troicki semifinalists. Bachinger, who has only four ATP main draws, and two wins, since Stockholm, will be losing about a fourth of his points and will probably fall below #150…Gulbis may well lose his Top Hundred spot. The others are in better shape, but Tomas Berdych’s #5 spot is in grave danger, and Dimitrov, since he is not playing, will probably fall to not much above #25. Bautista Agut too might wind up around #25.

At #1, of course, Novak Djokovic is safe. But #2 is a very open question. Andy Murray just took the spot from Roger Federer, but this week, he’s the one who is defending. He and Federer go in very close to even; odds are that whoever lasts longer will be #2. The other is sure to stay #3. Stan Wawrinka is sure to keep the #4 spot. Below that, nothing is set. Berdych and Nishikori are very close in the contest for #5. Nadal and Ferrer are fairly close in the contest for #7, although Nadal leads (we won’t know until Sunday by how much). We’d guess Milos Raonic will stay #9 (he has no possibility of moving up, unless he wins Shanghai and the Spaniards do nothing this week or next), but we have perhaps as many as seven candidates for the last Top Ten spot (Anderson, Gasquet, Cilic, Isner, Simon, Tsonga, Goffin). And odds are that only the one who makes it to the Top Ten will have any appreciable chance at making it to London.

We will of course be keeping you up to date on the Race as the week proceeds.

Copyright © 2015. No duplication is permitted without permission from Bob Larson Tennis.