Men's Look Forward: Estoril, Munich

This week is, in a way, a deadline for the mid-level clay players: The last optional event that affects Roland Garros. If they aren't ranked high enough to get into Rome and Hamburg when entries closed, this is their one chance to earn a seed.

And, yes, that applies -- to Juan Carlos Ferrero, no less, since his ranking was too low a month ago to earn direct Masters entry, but who now is close to being "seedable."

It looks like Ferrero knows it. He has to be utterly exhausted -- but he signed up for Estoril. He is, unfortunately, unseeded. It's a fairly strong draw. Not as strong as Barcelona (no Coria and no Nadal), but it does have Carlos Moya as the #1 seed -- and, probably, trying desperately to build up some points before Rome comes off. Gaston Gaudio, who seems to be trying his best to assure that he'll be dead on his feet when it comes time to defend Roland Garros, is #2. Joachim Johansson is the #3 seed and making another try for the Top Ten, though he's unlikely to make enough noise on clay to matter. Tommy Robredo, whose points from Barcelona come off this week, is the #4 seed. Nicolas Massu flies in from Houston to be #5. Radek Stepanek, fresh off the Barcelona semifinal and playing the best tennis of his career, is #6. Jiri Novak takes the #7 seed, and Feliciano Lopez is #8.

We also have a fair number of interesting unseeded players. Ferrero, of course, heads the list, but we also have Juan Ignacio Chela and Albert Costa. Agustin Calleri has been playing very well lately, though he came down with a back injury at Barcelona. Tomas Berdych gives the Czechs three good clay-courters in the draw.

And then there is Alex Corretja, who took a wildcard into the draw. (We'd love to know what he does when he isn't living off his history.) It's hard to imagine him doing much damage these days, but he was, in his prime, one of the four or five best clay courters here.

The field at Munich has a slightly jet lagged look; several of these players, including Tommy Haas, are just in from Houston. This tournament has never been one of the top clay stops, and this year, it's up against the bigger money of Estoril. The result is not particularly strong. But it does have one big name at the top: David Nalbandian, who took a wildcard here to try to get into shape for all the upcoming clay events. Defending champion Nikolay Davydenko, who is having a solid year and likes clay, is #2. Mario Ancic earns the #3 spot, with Haas #4, Andrei Pavel #5, Igor Andreev #6, clay-hating Paradorn Srichaphan #7, and Rainer Schuettler #8 because this event was seeded based on the rankings before Monte Carlo came off. This is clearly the event that the non-clay players are playing; in addition to Srichaphan, it features Peter Wessels and Sjeng Schalken and Hyung-Taik Lee. Just about the only strong unseeded clay players are Luis Horna and Nicolas Lapentti, both of whom are just in from Houston and both of whom, especially Lapentti, are slumping (Lapentti in fact needed a special exempt to get into even this weak draw).

Noteworthy First Round Matches

At Munich, it's a pretty short list. We will see #1 seed Nalbandian try to come back against the exhilarated but exhausted Lapentti. #3 Mario Ancic will face Jose Acasuso, who seems bound for a career of underachieving but who at least knows clay. #2 seed Davydenko will go up against Frenchman Jerome Haehnel, finally playing in Europe where he's most comfortable. And there might be some interest in seeing #8 seed Schuettler take on Ricardo Mello, who has been better over the past half-year than the German and who also probably likes clay better.

Estoril has a lot of much better choices, starting at the very top. #1 seed Moya will face countryman Felix Mantilla -- and, given how badly Moya has been playing, that could get interesting. Ferrero will face the likeable Marcos Baghdatis, who hasn't been seen much lately. #5 seed Massu, in only his second match back, will have to take on Albert Costa; that really has upset potential. So does the match between #3 seed Joachin Johansson, simply because any match involving Johansson on clay has upset potential. The match between #8 seed Feliciano Lopez and wildcard Corretja also has a little interest, because Lopez is another guy who wins mostly with tools that work better on faster courts.

The Rankings

For the third straight week, what is coming off doesn't very well match what is coming on. Munich has kept its time slot, but it's a bottom-tier event. The major event coming off is Barcelona, and that's a top-of-the-optinal-heap event, worth quite a bit more than Estoril. That means that last year's Barcelona champion, Tommy Robredo, is guaranteed to take a hit. Last year's Barcelona finalist Gaston Gaudio doesn't have nearly as much to worry about; that's a lot of points, of course (210 of them), but he has plenty of other optional events and won't see his total fall by much even if he loses early. It's much worse for semifinalists Kristof Vliegen and Albert Montanes, the first of whom isn't even playing.

Munich last year was won by Nikolay Davydenko, but he too has plenty of optional results and won't suffer badly, the more so since there is a big point gap below him. The finalist he beat, though, was Martin Verkerk, who has almost nothing else on his record except the Amersfoort title (and who in fact doesn't have a single ATP match since Amersfoort last July). He appears bound out of the Top 100.

At the top of the rankings, we won't see any movement; it's going to stay Federer-Hewitt-Roddick-Safin. Below that, our active players are Moya and Gaudio. Moya could move up a little, though it doesn't appear he can threaten the Top Five; Gaudio might lose a few points, though, as noted, not many.

The other player to watch is probably Ferrero. His Barcelona final put him right on the edge of the Top 40. A final here ought to get him a Roland Garros seed, no matter what happens the rest of the way.

We might note that Fabrice Santoro at this time last year won a big $125K Challenger over Arnaud Clement, so those two Frenchmen are going to be under a bit of pressure also. But it appears they'll be playing the Challenger again.

Key Matches

The first thing to watch is how Robredo does; his Top 20 ranking appears safe, but he'd like to stay Top 15, and that's no good bet. Though his draw is pretty good: A qualifier, then Gilles Muller or Santiago Ventura. The first seed he might face is Massu, though Costa, on current form, is probably at least as likely. Then comes the big test: Moya, or Ferrero, or Chela, or Novak. Win that, and he will probably earn at least a Top 16 Roland Garros seed. But he needs a title to have a decent chance of staying where he is. So he also has to deal with Gaudio.

Estoril also gives us the Moya-trying-to-get-on-track and Ferrero-trying-to-get-seeded contests. That's all the more interesting because they can't both happen. If Moya gets past Mantilla and Ferrero tops Baghdatis, they would meet in the second round. The winner then would probably face Novak or Chela. And then Robredo.

Come to think of it, that whole top half at Estoril is fascinating.

At Munich, the biggest question is, How will Nalbandian come back from his injury? If he's in good form, Lapentti in the first round probably won't offer much resistance. Florian Mayer in the second could be tougher. His quarterfinal looks nice -- the seed is Srichaphan, though Juan Monaco might have a chance just because he's the only clay guy in that part of the draw.

We'd also pay attention to Rainer Schuettler, now that he's effectively hit bottom. Can he finally bring himself back to life? Mello isn't a great first round opponent, but he isn't bad, either, and Julien Benneteau isn't too bad in the second. After that, he would face Mario Ancic -- again, not too bad a draw, considering.